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    • Special-Needs Planning
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    • Monthly Market Watch
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Provident Oak Financial Monthly Market Watch

Monthly Update – January 2026

Ending 2025 on a positive note

December closed the year with constructive macroeconomic backdrop; inflation, labor market dynamics, and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shaped a positive tone for markets heading into 2026.

While Inflation data was incomplete due to the government shutdown, data showed further signs of cooling. Both headline and core measures continued to drift lower, as illustrated by the Cleveland and NY Fed measures in the chart to the left. Core PCE remains above the Federal reserve target of 2%, but the overall trend has reinforced the view that the Fed’s tightening cycle has largely achieved its objective. Market‑based inflation expectations (3-yr breakeven) moved lower, reflecting confidence that the Fed is on the right path.

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What This Means For You

Markets move every day, but your financial plan is built for more than headlines. Today’s developments may influence short-term sentiment, yet your strategy is designed to align with long-term goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

  • Stay Disciplined: Volatility is normal. Reacting emotionally can derail progress toward your objectives.
  • Focus on Fundamentals: Economic trends and policy shifts matter, but your plan accounts for these variables over time.
  • Opportunities & Risks: Market changes can create both. We continuously monitor conditions to identify adjustments when they support your goals.
  • Your Next Step: If recent news raises questions about your portfolio or financial plan, let’s review together. A quick conversation can ensure confidence and clarity.


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Copyright © 2025 Provident Oak Financial LLC. - All Rights Reserved. 

 Investment advice is offered through OneAscent Financial Services, LLC, d/b/a Provident Oak Financial, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. 

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